- “Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis” is the process of numerically analyzing the effect of identified risks on overall project objectives. True or False
- “Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis” has following Inputs (Fill in missing lines)

- __________________
- Cost Management Plan
- Schedule Management Plan
- __________________
- Enterprise Environmental Factors
- Organizational Process Assets

- Cost Management Plan includes Cost Reserves related to risks. True or False
- Schedule Management Plan includes Schedule Reserves related to risks. True or False
- In some cases it may not be possible to execute “Perform Quantitative risk Analysis” due to lack of sufficient data to develop appropriate models. True or False
- Risk databases that may be available from industry or private sources are not useful in Quantitative Risk Analysis. True or False
- For a large project, when performing “Quantitative” risk analysis for overall project duration, the shapes of distributions of activity durations (beta, triangle, uniform, normal, etc.) are very significant. True or False
- In a large project, Central Limit Theorem governs the behavior of
*overall project cost*or*overall project duration*when project individual activity durations or individual activity costs are randomly distributed. True or False - One main assumption in PERT in calculating
*expected project duration*is that all activity duration distributions are independent. This assumption is unlikely to be perfectly valid in practice. True or False - For a large project,
*overall project duration*is usually normally distributed. True or False - The range of cost estimates for various activities in a large project can be gathered by Interview with project members and/or from experts. True or False
- Consider The Wedding Plan Project case. Suppose that the wedding gown alteration activity duration will be 2 days with 10% probability; 4 days with 70% probability and 6 days 20% probability (no other durations are possible). This will be an example of a
*Continuous Probability Distribution*. True or False - What is the
*expected duration**and variance*of the above activity (in #12)? - Consider the same wedding gown alteration activity. The tailors expect a range of 2 days to 6 days for activity completion with
*uniform probability (uniform distribution).*It means any single time duration between 2 and 6 days (inclusive) have same probability. True or False - What is the probability of any duration between 2 and 6 days (inclusive) for the activity in #14?
- Explain briefly Triangle distribution for the above activity that is spread between 2 and 6 days.
- Consider an activity A in a project network. A simulation run of 15,000 results in two tornado diagrams –one for Total Project Cost and one for Total Project Duration. In the 1
^{st}tornado diagram, A is at the top while in the 2^{nd}tornado diagram, it is at the bottom. What does that mean? - The management of ABC Inc. is considering two projects A and B. They want to select one of these projects based on 1 year data. Project A would require investment of $50,000 (negative cash flow) and yield revenues of $15,000; $25,000 and $32,000 in High, Medium and Low favorable economic conditions. Project B would require investment of $30,000 (negative cash flow) and yield revenues of $10,000; $10,000 and $50,000 in High, Medium and Low favorable economic conditions. Experts have rated the chances of High, Medium and Low favorable economic conditions to be .3; .5; and .2 respectively. What are the EMVs of each project? Which project would you select? (Neglect any time of money).
- Time and Cost contingency reserves should not be based on cumulative frequency distributions of Total Project Duration or Total Project Cost respectively. True or False
- Risk Response Planning should absolutely not started before “Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis” True or False.